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Gold is trading around $4,687 within the primary downtrend channel formed since early April and within the secondary uptrend channel formed since early May.
Gold could come under downward pressure in the coming hours if it consolidates below the 200 EMA, below the 21 SMA, and below the 7/8 Murray line.
A decisive break below the uptrend channel formed since early May could accelerate gold's downward movement; we could expect it to reach the lower band of the main downtrend channel around $4,420 in the coming days.
Conversely, if gold consolidates above $4,703 and above the 200 EMA and 21 SMA in the coming hours, it could be a positive signal, but it still needs to challenge the upper band of the downtrend channel around $4,735.
Once the downtrend channel is broken, a consolidation above $4,745 could signal a strong upward move, and gold could reach $4,888 near the April 17 high and even hit the psychological $5,000 level around Murray's 8/8.
Our trading plan for the coming hours is to monitor gold to see if it stays below or above the 200 EMA. Another possibility would be to buy on a pullback toward $4,670 or wait for a break of the bullish channel to sell.
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