07.04.202507:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on April 7? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Monday. After last week's developments, we believe these events will have no impact on the movements of either currency pair. Nonetheless, today's agenda includes reports on retail sales in the Eurozone and industrial production in Germany. But who is paying attention to these figures right now? The world remains at the epicenter of events surrounding Trump's new trade policy. And it cannot be said that the worst is already behind us. Many countries have expressed a desire to reach agreements with the controversial U.S. president, but the largest players are preparing to introduce retaliatory tariffs and sanctions. The European Union is already drafting a new list of goods worth $28 billion to be subject to duties.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

At the moment, there is no point discussing anything other than Trump's trade tariffs. The decline of the dollar may continue indefinitely despite Friday's rebound. We advise traders to closely monitor speeches by top officials from major countries and alliances regarding counter-tariffs. Trump has stated that any response to his actions to "eliminate injustice" will be severely punished with new sanctions and tariffs. So, if anyone assumed the tariffs introduced on Wednesday were final and their rates set in stone, they are sorely mistaken. Prolonged and complex negotiations will now begin with all "sanctioned" countries. Retaliatory tariffs from key global players are about to roll out. How will this all end? No one knows.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the new week, both currency pairs may move in any direction. The market is in a state of panic and chaos, so there is no logic behind the price action. Trading should be based solely on levels in the 5-minute timeframe without relying on a clear trend.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.