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The euro and the pound retained their strength against the dollar despite a correction in risk assets during the latter part of the day.
The European currency demonstrated resilience to external factors, such as speculation over trade talks between China and the United States. Despite a brief dollar strengthening triggered by these rumors, the euro quickly regained its ground during today's Asian session — a sign of strength and growth potential.
Traders will focus on the key factors supporting the euro today. These include the relative stability of the Eurozone economy and expectations of further monetary easing by the European Central Bank. At the same time, continued uncertainty around the U.S. economic outlook and a potential slowdown due to trade tariffs are putting pressure on the dollar.
Later this morning, important Eurozone reports are expected, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the ECB's current account balance data. These reports are critical for assessing the region's inflationary pressure and shaping future monetary policy decisions by the ECB. The CPI is a key indicator reflecting the price dynamics of household goods and services. A rise in the index may signal a need to tighten monetary policy to contain inflation, while a decline may prompt the ECB to introduce stimulus measures to support economic growth. The core CPI, which excludes volatile components like food and energy, provides a clearer view of underlying inflation. Comparing the headline and core indices can help identify short-term and structural inflationary factors.
The UK is also expected to release similar inflation data. These reports will directly impact financial markets and determine the direction of currency movements.
If the data match economists' expectations, the Mean Reversion strategy is best. The Momentum strategy is more appropriate if the data come in significantly above or below forecasts.
Buying on a breakout above 1.1415 could lead to a rise toward 1.1470 and 1.1562
Selling on a breakout below 1.1304 could lead to a decline toward 1.1265 and 1.1200
Buying on a breakout above 1.3300 could lead to a rise toward 1.3344 and 1.3380
Selling on a breakout below 1.3250 could lead to a decline toward 1.3200 and 1.3170
Buying on a breakout above 143.50 could lead to a rise toward 143.87 and 144.17
Selling on a breakout below 142.10 could lead to a drop toward 141.80 and 141.35
I will look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1383 followed by a return below this level
I will look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.1298 followed by a return above this level
I will look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3282 followed by a return below this level
I will look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3233 followed by a return above this level
I will look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6365 followed by a return below this level
I will look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.6334 followed by a return above this level
I will look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3957 followed by a return below this level
I will look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3923 followed by a return above this level
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