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The wave pattern on the GBP/USD chart has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive structure — all "thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave pattern is nearly identical to that of the EUR/USD pair. Up until February 28, we observed the formation of a solid corrective structure that raised no concerns. However, demand for the U.S. dollar then began to fall rapidly. As a result, a five-wave upward structure formed. Wave 2 turned into a single-wave form and is now complete. Therefore, a strong rise in the pound as part of wave 3 is to be expected — and this is exactly what we've been observing for more than a week now.
Given that UK news has had no influence on the pound's sharp rise, one can conclude that currency trends are currently being dictated solely by Donald Trump. If — theoretically — Trump changes his course on trade policy, a trend reversal is possible, shifting from bullish to bearish. This means that for the coming months (or possibly even years), close attention must be paid to every move coming out of the White House.
The GBP/USD pair remained virtually unchanged on Tuesday. Of course, the day is not over, but there are no significant events or news scheduled for the U.S. session. Therefore, the market is likely to remain quiet for the rest of the day. It remains a mystery why demand for the U.S. dollar collapsed again late Monday night and into Tuesday morning. However, this shouldn't be seen as odd — the dollar has been under sustained market pressure for two months, and Donald Trump continues to stoke the fire with hostile remarks and new tariff threats.
Recently, reports have emerged suggesting that Trump's advisers have recommended he halt further tariff hikes. It's likely the new administration expected a quick resolution to the trade balance deficit issue. Simply put, Trump assumed the rest of the world would accept his terms, resolving the matter quickly. I even suspect that Trump was bluffing with his astronomically high tariffs, particularly against China. However, raising tariffs any further would essentially bring international trade to a halt. Economists assert that the current tariffs imposed by the U.S. — and retaliatory tariffs imposed on the U.S. — are already "prohibitive." This means that a large portion of trade has become unprofitable for both sides. Therefore, additional tariff hikes are now pointless even for the U.S. That said, I don't see any signs that the market considers the trade war escalation over. Demand for the dollar continues to fall, just as it did before.
The wave structure for GBP/USD has transformed into a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets may continue to experience shocks and reversals that defy both wave analysis and any other form of technical analysis. The presumed wave 2 has concluded, as the price has moved beyond the peak of wave 1. Thus, we expect the formation of a third upward wave, with near-term targets at 1.3345 and 1.3541 — assuming Trump doesn't make a 180-degree turn in trade policy, for which there are currently no signs. Of course, it would be beneficial to see a corrective wave 2 within wave 3, but that would require the dollar to rise... and for that to happen, someone would have to start buying it.
On a higher time frame, the wave pattern has also shifted to bullish. We can now expect the construction of a longer-term upward trend. The nearest targets are 1.2782 and 1.2650.
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