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How far will greed carry the crowd? The late April rally in the S&P 500 somewhat sweetened the bitter pill for Donald Trump. His first 100 days in office have marked the worst performance for the broad equity index since the 1970s. While hedge funds continue to rely on macroeconomic data and sell into strength, individual investors have adopted a strategy of tuning in to the voices of the U.S. administration.
Statements from White House officials about progress in trade talks and easing of auto tariffs outweighed disappointing data on consumer confidence, the trade balance, and job openings. The U.S. economy is cooling — the Atlanta Fed's leading indicator points to a 1.5% contraction in Q1, far worse than Bloomberg's +0.3% forecast.
Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick claims to have signed a deal with an unnamed country. According to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, several agreements — particularly with Asian countries — are close. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned progress in talks with South Korea, Japan, and India, stating that market clarity will return once Washington announces finalized trade deals.
Don't believe your eyes — believe your ears? The fiery speeches from White House officials were enough for the market to ignore the worst consumer confidence reading in five years, a record trade deficit, and a sharp drop in job vacancies. Hedge funds betting on economic slowdown may be fundamentally correct but have found themselves outmaneuvered by the crowd's confidence in buying the dips.
Interestingly, at the end of Trump's first 100 days, only one out of eleven S&P 500 sectors — consumer staples — showed gains. These are products Americans continue to buy even during a recession.
Greed allowed the market to forgive Donald Trump for another round of criticism toward Jerome Powell. The president referred to him as an employee who wasn't doing a very good job and claimed he knew more about interest rates than the Fed chair himself.
Whatever the White House's plan may be, it's working for now: words outweigh numbers. How long can this last? That may not matter — the key point is that now is the time to hedge against a potential S&P 500 downturn as the economy cools, especially since the cost of protection (i.e., options premiums) has recently declined.
Technically, on the daily chart of the broad market index, the bulls have successfully activated and completed a 1-2-3 reversal pattern. However, the odds of consolidation currently look stronger than the likelihood of a resumed uptrend. A rejection from resistance at 5625 or 5695, or a drop below 5500, would signal to lock in long profits and consider reversing positions.
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