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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The first test of the 1.1354 price level in the second half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1354, while the MACD was in oversold territory, allowed Scenario #2 for buying the euro to play out, resulting in a 20-point rise, after which pressure on the pair returned.
Despite the U.S. government's initial estimate showing a 0.3% annualized decline in GDP for the first quarter — contrary to forecasts of a modest increase — this had little noticeable effect on the U.S. dollar. The currency displayed unexpected stability. Clearly, the market had already priced in the potential slowdown in economic growth and its slide toward recession by year-end, as a result of the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy. The dollar may also be supported by easing geopolitical tensions related to U.S. trade tariffs.
In the first half of today, no economic data releases are scheduled for the Eurozone, creating conditions for a continuation of the EUR/USD downward trend. Technical analysis also confirms a weakening of the euro's position.
As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Scenarios
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the entry point around 1.1319 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising toward the 1.1380 level. I plan to exit the market at 1.1380 and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. It's unlikely we'll see euro growth in the first half of the day. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1274 price level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1319 and 1.1380 can be expected.
Sell Scenarios
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1274 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1221 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point move back. Pressure on the pair can return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to fall from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1319 price level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1274 and 1.1221 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
Important. Beginner Forex traders must make very cautious decisions about market entry. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan — like the one I've presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.
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