09.05.202518:52 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold prices are showing a positive trajectory after an intraday decline to the $3275–3274 level. The renewed demand for safe-haven assets is driven by geopolitical risks, including the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine, rising tensions in the Middle East, and the conflict between India and Pakistan. Additionally, a moderate pullback in the U.S. dollar from its monthly high reached earlier today is providing support for the precious metal.

With today's intraday recovery, the XAU/USD pair has broken a two-day losing streak. However, the potential for further upside remains limited. Optimism stemming from the recent trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K., as well as the start of U.S.–China negotiations this weekend, is fueling risk appetite. Moreover, the Federal Reserve's hawkish pause limits any significant downward correction in the dollar, which in turn keeps gold prices capped at lower levels.

In an environment where the dollar remains stable, gold may struggle to sustain further gains despite prevailing geopolitical factors. Thus, while gold benefits from renewed safe-haven demand and a dollar correction, overall market dynamics remain under pressure due to the Fed's pause. Investors should closely monitor ongoing geopolitical developments and economic data that could influence the yellow metal's trajectory.

Technical Outlook: Yesterday's break below the $3350 level and today's drop below $3300 create favorable conditions for bearish traders. Although oscillators on the daily chart are losing momentum, they have yet to confirm a bearish bias, warranting caution before opening short positions. Gold is expected to find support near the $3265 level. However, sustained selling could pave the way for a decline toward intermediate support at $3223, eventually targeting the key $3200 level, which marked last week's low.

On the other hand, the $3340 level serves as immediate resistance. Any further upward movement is likely to attract sellers, limiting gains within the $3370–3350 resistance zone. Sustained strength beyond this area could allow the XAU/USD pair to retest the psychological level of $3400, followed by a move toward the next significant barrier near $3440 or the weekly high.

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