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On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair easily recovered from the losses it experienced on Monday. Once again, we observe that the British pound rises more strongly than the euro and falls more weakly. Tuesday began poorly for the British currency, as the UK unemployment rate rose to 4.5%. While the market was somewhat prepared for this, it still wasn't a positive development for the pound. Nevertheless, the pound chose to ignore this bearish signal. One could argue that the stronger-than-expected wage growth report helped counterbalance the unemployment data, reducing the likelihood of further monetary policy easing by the Bank of England. But from our point of view, the unemployment figure carries more weight.
Furthermore, last week the market ignored the second BoE rate cut and the lack of easing from the Federal Reserve. So once again, we can conclude that the pound is ready to rise "on thin air." Yesterday, Donald Trump also issued new threats toward the European Union, and the U.S. Consumer Price Index unexpectedly slowed in April. The market, which ignored the Fed's hawkish tone just a week ago, suddenly decided that the Fed might lower rates soon, because inflation is declining. As a result, bullish factors for the dollar were ignored, while bearish ones were fully priced in.
The first buy signal formed on the 5-minute chart during the U.S. trading session. The price broke through the 1.3212 level, which triggered further growth beyond 1.3288 by the end of the day. Thus, traders could enter long positions and earn a good profit.
COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has fluctuated frequently in recent years. The red and blue lines, representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, cross regularly and typically remain near the zero line. They are again close to each other, indicating roughly equal numbers of long and short positions.
In the weekly timeframe, the price broke below the 1.3154 level, then broke a trend line, returned to 1.3154, and broke again. Breaking the trend line indicates a high probability that the pound will continue to fall. However, we see that the dollar keeps dropping due to Donald Trump. Therefore, the trade war news could continue pushing the pound higher despite technical factors.
According to the latest COT report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,300 long contracts and closed 1,900 short contracts, increasing their net position by 5,200 contracts.
The fundamental backdrop still offers no justification for long-term purchases of the pound sterling, and the currency has real chances to resume a global downtrend. The pound has risen sharply recently, but we must remember that Donald Trump's policy is the sole reason. Once that factor is removed, the dollar may begin to strengthen.
In the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair finally broke out of its sideways channel and began a downward movement. However, that decline didn't last long. Any continuation of the decline will depend entirely on Donald Trump and how the global trade conflict develops. If tensions continue to ease and deals are signed, the dollar could resume its growth. However, it's important to note that the market still doesn't favor the U.S. dollar and remains skeptical about a complete de-escalation of the trade war.
For May 14, the key levels to watch are: 1.2691–1.2701, 1.2796–1.2816, 1.2863, 1.2981–1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3288, 1.3358, 1.3439, 1.3489, and 1.3537. The Senkou Span B line (1.3348) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3255) can also serve as potential signal points. It's recommended to place a Stop Loss at breakeven once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can shift throughout the day, which should be considered when identifying trade signals.
No significant events are scheduled in the UK or the U.S. for Wednesday. Therefore, we do not expect strong movements, although the dollar may continue to decline, as the market has once again latched onto the bearish narrative for the U.S. currency.
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