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Despite the 90-day truce between Beijing and Washington, market conditions remain extremely tense. Investors are uncertain about what will happen after three months—whether Donald Trump will hike tariffs again or devise something even more convoluted.
Everyone who thinks critically understands that the current state of neither war nor peace in U.S.-China trade relations stems from America's economic vulnerability and China's industrial strength. Because Chinese goods have infiltrated virtually every American household, the current U.S. administration is forced to maneuver, deceive, and twist reality in an attempt to break the resistance of its main economic rival. Directly, the U.S. cannot overpower China with threats or blackmail. Naturally, this overarching uncertainty fuels the market's high volatility.
Even gold prices, which had been rising steadily since the beginning of the year, have entered a chaotic pattern of unpredictable swings. This again reflects investor confusion over how Trump's chaotic policy actions will unfold. Buying gold at historically high levels without a clear rationale is extremely risky, even under the guise of hedging.
A year ago, the U.S. dollar would have found strong support as a safe-haven asset during episodes of risk aversion. But that's no longer happening. Investors fear a ballooning U.S. budget deficit, concerns that escalated after the Budget Committee approved Trump's tax-and-spending legislation on Sunday. The proposed plan is projected to increase the deficit by trillions of dollars over the next decade. The president claims that tax cuts will stimulate growth, boost revenues, and eventually reduce the deficit. But in reality, the U.S. is caught in a vicious cycle that may be impossible to escape without major shocks. Economic stimulus requires public spending, which also increases national debt—something Trump once vowed to reduce. It seems inevitable that he will fall back on the same old habit of living on borrowed money, potentially leading to a collapse of the U.S. financial system.
Meanwhile, on Monday, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic reiterated his expectation of only one rate cut this year, citing uncertainty caused by tariffs. This, combined with President Trump's actions, has weakened the dollar on the foreign exchange market. On this backdrop, cryptocurrencies are also under pressure and consolidating within sideways ranges. The only rising assets are stock indices, supported by relatively strong corporate earnings and the 90-day trade truce. The hope that the economic strain will force the Fed to resume rate cuts remains the key bullish driver.
We can likely expect overall sideways movement amid high volatility. The U.S. dollar index (USDX) may decline further as fiscal deficit concerns rise and expectations for Fed rate cuts grow. Gold prices may again retreat toward recent local highs. Stock markets will likely attempt a mild upward movement.
The dollar index is hovering near the 100.10 mark. A break below could push it down to 99.30. A good level to consider short positions is 99.99.
Gold prices are also under pressure due to broad market negativity. A drop below 3210.00 could open the way toward 3128.50. A potential sell entry could be considered around 3201.48.
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