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For the GBP/USD pair, the wave structure continues to suggest the development of a bullish impulsive trend. The wave pattern is nearly identical to that of EUR/USD. Until February 28, we observed the formation of a clear corrective structure that raised no doubts. However, demand for the U.S. dollar began to fall rapidly, eventually leading to a trend reversal. Wave 2 of this trend took the form of a single wave. Within the assumed wave 3, waves 1 and 2 have already been formed. Therefore, a further rise of the pound within wave 3 of 3 is expected—something we are now witnessing.
It's important to remember that much in the currency market currently depends on Donald Trump's policies. Even when positive news emerges from the U.S., the market remains preoccupied with overall uncertainty in the economy, Trump's contradictory decisions, and the White House's hostile and protectionist foreign policy stance. As a result, the dollar has to work much harder to convert good news into demand.
The GBP/USD rate remained virtually unchanged throughout Thursday. Based on the wave analysis, it's clear that there are few dollar supporters in the market. Corrective waves are generally weak—an indicator of overall market sentiment. Yesterday, it was revealed that UK inflation had surged to 3.5%. This figure clearly signals that the Bank of England will put monetary policy easing on pause—potentially for quite some time. Monetary policy is not the market's top focus right now; otherwise, demand for the dollar would be more consistent. Still, yesterday's inflation data provided yet another reason to increase demand for GBP/USD.
Today, we learned that the UK Services PMI rose in May from 49.0 to 50.2. However, the Manufacturing PMI dropped from 45.4 to 45.1. Markets had expected higher readings. The services sector barely returned to expansion territory, and manufacturing remains deeply in contraction. Therefore, this data set cannot be considered a net positive for the pound. The market seems to agree—but who is selling pounds for dollars right now? Once again, traders have opted to ignore data that would typically support the dollar.
The U.S. currency remains under pressure—and will likely continue to struggle—until there is clarity in trade relations between the U.S., China, and the European Union. Even if progress is made, it won't guarantee a dollar rebound. Trade relations between these major economies will likely deteriorate no matter what deals are signed, and overall trade volumes may decline. The U.S. economy could slow even further, and questions remain unanswered about how the country will resolve its high national debt and budget deficit.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD has shifted. We are now in a bullish impulsive phase. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets may face many shocks and reversals that do not align with wave structures or any kind of technical analysis. The third upward wave continues to develop, with near-term targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. As a result, I continue to favor long positions, as the market currently shows no signs of reversing the trend again.
On the higher wave scale, the structure has also turned bullish. We are likely witnessing the formation of a longer-term upward trend that is not yet complete. For now, continued growth remains the most probable scenario.
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