23.05.202517:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the AUD/JPY pair has started to attract buying interest, halting its pullback from the monthly high as demand for the Australian dollar emerges.

Today's talks between U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu emphasized a commitment to maintaining open lines of communication and discussing a broad range of mutually important issues. This, combined with overall U.S. dollar weakness, is helping to support the Australian dollar.

However, the mix of factors calls for some caution from the bulls.

Persistent tensions between the U.S. and China—especially following warnings from China's Ministry of Commerce about potential legal actions in response to U.S. export restrictions on Huawei Ascend AI chips—may limit market optimism. In addition, the dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is capping the upside for the Australian dollar and, accordingly, the AUD/JPY pair.

Furthermore, the RBA's decision to cut the benchmark interest rate to 3.8% and signal openness to further easing creates a policy divergence with the Bank of Japan's increasingly hawkish stance. This divergence, along with consistent demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset, is holding back AUD/JPY bulls from initiating stronger buying.

Bank of Japan officials have expressed readiness to raise interest rates if economic conditions and inflation continue to improve—supporting the yen. Higher-than-expected Japanese consumer inflation data released today further reinforce expectations of additional monetary tightening.

Although current buying in AUD/JPY may suggest a short-term rebound, investors should remain cautious and wait for more convincing signals to confirm a bottom and the potential for sustained upside. Technically, oscillators on the daily chart remain mixed, further justifying a wait-and-see approach.

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