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While the Eurozone may have a quiet week ahead, with markets focused on Trump's following remarks and the EU's potential response, there will be virtually no significant events in the United Kingdom. As a result, the pound's dynamics will depend entirely on whether Donald Trump was joking last Friday (which is quite possible) and how the EU reacts. Let me remind you that demand for the British currency continues to rise. The Bank of England maintains a fairly hawkish stance on monetary policy, and the elevated inflation rate is unlikely to allow the central bank to cut rates in the near term.
However, none of that matters. What matters is that Trump has again gone on the offensive, and the market immediately responded with renewed pressure on the dollar. So, even if there were any UK economic data this week, it wouldn't affect the market. Even U.S. reports are having little impact on traders now.
From the perspective of wave analysis, everything is progressing normally along its natural course. The longer Trump keeps up his confrontational tone and threats, the longer the upward wave segment of the trend will continue. For several weeks in a row, the market hoped that trade tensions would ease, but the conditions offered by the European Union did not satisfy Trump — and we will likely never know what those terms were. Currently, there is no clear information that negotiations are taking place. They might be happening, but no details are being disclosed.
Thus, we can assume that the situation will continue to deteriorate unless Trump is joking last Friday or simply trying to pressure the EU to be more flexible. With a trade deal already signed with the UK, this matter is closed for the British pound.
Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, the pair continues to develop a bullish wave structure. In the near term, the wave formation will depend entirely on the news background, especially Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. And Trump, as we can see, is intent on continuing the fight. Wave 3 of the upward cycle has begun, with targets potentially extending toward the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buying opportunities, with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to the 423.6% Fibonacci extension. It's important to keep in mind that a de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but at the moment, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.
The wave structure for GBP/USD has evolved. We are now dealing with a bullish impulse wave. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets may still face many shocks and trend reversals that defy wave theory and technical analysis. However, everything is unfolding in line with the updated wave scenario. The pair is still developing wave 3 of the uptrend, with near-term targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to focus on long positions, as the market has no desire to reverse the trend again.
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