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The Japanese yen continues to weaken during intraday trading. One of the key factors putting pressure on the yen is Japan's decision to consider reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds, which led to a drop in the yield on 30-year government bonds to the lowest level seen since May 8. This decline in yields reduces the yen's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
In addition, optimism following U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to postpone tariffs on goods from the European Union has further weakened demand for safe-haven assets, including the yen.
Nevertheless, investors remain cautious due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and concerns about the country's worsening fiscal outlook. Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 also limit the U.S. dollar's ability to recover from its monthly low, which in turn caps the USD/JPY pair's upward momentum.
Given this, it would be prudent to wait for confirmation of a strong buying impulse before asserting that the pair has bottomed or preparing for a significant rally, especially with key macroeconomic data from the U.S. and Japan expected later this week.
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has not yet cleared the 200-hour simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart remain in negative territory, indicating that bears still control the market. However, sustained strength above the key 144.00 level—along with a breakout above the 200-hour SMA—could pave the way for further recovery. Still, any move northward should be viewed as a selling opportunity near 144.80, which will likely be capped by the psychological barrier at 145.00.
On the other hand, the 143.00 round level provides immediate support ahead of the 142.20 level. A break below this area and acceptance below 142.00 would clearly mark a loss for the bulls today. The USD/JPY pair would then drop below intermediate support at 141.55, heading toward the 141.00 round level. The bearish trajectory could extend to the yearly low and potentially even below the psychological 140.00 level.
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