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The euro, pound, and other risk assets, including the Japanese yen, continued their rapid decline against the US dollar, and there were objective reasons for this.
In addition to yesterday's uninformative Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which revealed nothing new, demand for the dollar increased following news that the US Court of International Trade had overturned Trump's global reciprocal tariffs and ordered the administration to cease their enforcement. Traders interpreted this as a signal of reduced trade tensions and a return to a more predictable economic policy. The repeal of the tariffs introduced under the "America First" strategy is seen by many as a positive step toward restoring global trade and sustaining positive growth momentum in the US economy.
The court's decision came after prolonged legal disputes and protests from the business sector, which argued that the tariffs harmed consumers and undermined the competitiveness of American companies. The removal of the tariffs is expected to lower prices on imported goods and improve conditions for exports.
Since no macroeconomic data releases are scheduled for the eurozone or the UK during the first half of the day—both of which have recently exerted pressure—risk assets may have a chance to recover modestly. This period of relative calm on the macroeconomic front may offer traders a brief reprieve and allow technical factors to take the lead temporarily.
Since no economic reports are expected from the UK today, market focus is likely to shift to speeches by Sarah Breeden, a member of the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee, and Governor Andrew Bailey. Their public remarks could offer critical insight into the current state of the UK economy, inflation forecasts, and future monetary policy.
Traders will watch these statements closely for signals of potential regulatory changes in the financial sector. Comments on banking system stability, risks related to lending, and the adequacy of bank capital could significantly affect market sentiment.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, relying on a Mean Reversion strategy is better. If the data significantly deviates from expectations, the Momentum strategy will be more appropriate.
Buying on a breakout above 1.1260 could lead to an upward move toward 1.1296 and 1.1336.
Selling on a breakout below 1.1230 could lead to a decline toward 1.1210 and 1.1184.
Buying on a breakout above 1.3451 could lead to a rise toward 1.3480 and 1.3515.
Selling on a breakout below 1.3425 could lead to a fall toward 1.3390 and 1.3350.
Buying on a breakout above 146.00 could lead to an upward move toward 146.49 and 146.85.
Selling on a breakout below 146.70 could lead to a sell-off toward 145.40 and 145.10.
I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1265 followed by a return below this level.
I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1227 followed by a return above this level.
I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3452 followed by a return below this level.
I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3415 followed by a return above this level.
I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6439 followed by a return below this level.
I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6407 followed by a return above this level.
I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3862 followed by a return below this level.
I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3835 followed by a return above this level.
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