29.05.202519:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The decline in gold prices below the $3300 threshold has triggered a wave of weakness, with the precious metal struggling to regain momentum. Global risk sentiment received a strong boost following a U.S. federal court decision to block President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, generating headwinds for safe-haven assets—especially in the context of yesterday's hawkish FOMC minutes.

Nevertheless, investors continue to factor in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates in 2025. Additionally, concerns over the deteriorating U.S. fiscal outlook are leading to some intraday selling of the U.S. dollar, which in turn provides a supportive tailwind for gold. Persisting geopolitical risks could also prevent gold bears from opening aggressive short positions, prompting market participants to proceed cautiously ahead of key upcoming U.S. economic data.

From a technical standpoint, the drop below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart favors the bears. Negative oscillators on this timeframe suggest that the path of least resistance remains to the downside. As a result, price recovery is likely to face strong resistance around the $3300 level. However, further buying beyond this level could trigger a short-covering rally, lifting gold toward the next barrier at $3325 and potentially up to the $3340 supply zone.

On the other hand, bears would be wise to wait for sustained weakness below the Asian session low near $3245 before initiating new positions. A break below this level could drag the price toward $3210. The downward trajectory may then extend to the psychologically significant $3200 level or even lower.

Still, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, it is too early to declare a decisive victory for the bears.