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The wave structure for GBP/USD continues to indicate the development of an upward impulsive wave pattern. The wave pattern is almost identical to that of EUR/USD. Until February 28, we observed the formation of a convincing corrective structure, which left little doubt. However, demand for the U.S. dollar then began to decline sharply, resulting in a trend reversal. Wave 2 of this trend has taken a single-wave form. Within the assumed Wave 3, Waves 1 and 2 have been formed. Therefore, a further rise of the British pound within Wave 3 of 3 is expected, and this is exactly what we are seeing.
It's important to remember that at present, much of the foreign exchange market depends on the policies of Donald Trump. Even positive news from the U.S. cannot offset the market's ongoing concerns about economic uncertainty, contradictory decisions from Trump, and the White House's hostile and protectionist stance. Therefore, the dollar must overcome significant hurdles to translate even positive news into increased market demand.
The GBP/USD pair showed little change on Friday and could gain a few dozen points by the end of the day. Demand for the U.S. dollar remains weak, and sellers have been crushed after a Manhattan court overturned its own decision to cancel Trump's global trade tariffs. The dollar had an excellent opportunity to recover at least some of the positions lost over recent months, but U.S. presidential policy has again thrown a wrench into those efforts.
There was no news from the U.K. today, while the U.S. released three reports that failed to inspire new market positions. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% month-over-month in April. Personal incomes in the U.S. increased by 0.8% (vs. expectations of +0.3%), while personal spending grew by 0.2%. This data does not provide evidence of structural changes in the economy nor does it influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. At the moment, Fed policy has little impact on market sentiment or the willingness to buy the dollar.
Recall that the FOMC is waiting for a clearer moment to assess the effects of tariffs on the economy and inflation. According to Jerome Powell, this clarity may come in the summer or even fall. It will depend on how many more changes are made to import tariffs. For China alone, tariffs have changed about ten times; for other countries, about five times. Broad-based tariffs on automobiles, car parts, steel, aluminum, and other goods must also be factored in. Thus, the Fed cannot yet draw any firm conclusions. Economic slowdown is inevitable — that much is clear. Inflation will rise — that too is clear. But how far these trends will go remains unknown.
The wave structure for GBP/USD has evolved. We are now dealing with an upward impulsive trend segment. Unfortunately, with Donald Trump in office, markets can expect many more shocks and trend reversals that do not conform to wave patterns or any kind of technical analysis. For now, however, the working scenario and wave pattern remain intact. The formation of the ascending Wave 3 continues, with immediate targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions, as the market shows no signs of wanting to reverse the trend yet.
On the higher wave scale, the structure has transformed into a bullish pattern. We can now assume the development of an upward trend segment that currently appears incomplete. Further gains can be expected.
Key Principles of My Analysis:
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