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US equity indices closed mixed in the latest regular trading session. The S&P 500 slipped 0.01%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.32%. The industrial Dow Jones eked out a gain of 0.13%.
Asian indices declined today alongside US equity futures, as escalating trade tensions prompted investors to pull back from riskier bets. Gold advanced amid rising demand for safe-haven assets.
The widening rift between the US and China over trade, tech restrictions, and geopolitical ambitions is stirring notable anxiety in the markets. Investors fear that a prolonged trade conflict could undermine global economic growth and further erode corporate earnings. This uncertainty is driving a shift toward more conservative asset allocations. Additional pressure is coming from the outlook for persistently high interest rates from the US Federal Reserve. The confluence of these factors is prompting investors to act cautiously and reduce exposure to risk.
Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, is climbing, signaling heightened demand for protective shelters.
Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.6%, while European contracts declined 0.5%. Late last week, China and the US accused each other of violating a trade agreement, triggering a 1.7% drop in Hong Kong stocks. President Donald Trump also announced plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.42%. The dollar slipped 0.2%, while the yen strengthened. Oil jumped 2.8% as geopolitical and trade risks intensified and OPEC+ raised output less than some had feared.
As noted earlier, tariff headlines are once again dominating markets following last week's legal disputes over the status of Trump's century-high import duties, which investors warn could steer the US toward recession. Amid the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and negotiations with countries including China, market participants are also watching a sweeping tax bill that threatens to deepen the US fiscal deficit.
According to David Chao, an economist at Invesco Asset Management, the current investment climate continues to be shaped by the ebb and flow of tariff escalations and the pressures that come with them. Markets are likely to adjust in response to these shifting dynamics, he noted.
At the end of last week, former President Donald Trump claimed that China had breached most of the agreement signed by the two sides in Geneva. On Monday, China's Ministry of Commerce responded with a strongly worded statement, condemning Trump's accusations and vowing to take measures to protect its interests. The move appeared to dim the prospects of an immediate phone call with Chinese leadership, something Trump has been pushing for as a means to resume bilateral talks.
The dispute has threatened to unravel trade relations, though Trump expressed optimism that a conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping could still take place in the near term. The White House expects the call to happen sometime this week.
As for the S&P 500's technical analysis, the key objective for buyers today is to break through the nearest resistance level of $5,877. Overcoming this level would support further upside and potentially trigger a push toward $5,897. Another critical target for bulls is reclaiming control over the $5,921 mark, which would help solidify upward momentum. If risk appetite wanes and the price begins to retreat, buyers will need to assert themselves near the $5,854 area. A break below this level would likely send the index sliding quickly toward $5,833 and potentially down to $5,812.
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