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The dollar continues to weaken — especially against the euro. Losses against the pound are somewhat smaller.
Yesterday's weak ISM data triggered a wave of selling in the U.S. dollar against risk assets and prompted a potential reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Market participants began pricing in a higher probability of rate cuts in the coming months. This, in turn, weakened the dollar, which is traditionally sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations. Another factor supporting the euro was the expectation that the European Central Bank will cut rates for the last time this week and then adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Today, in the first half of the day, the Eurozone's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, the Core CPI, and the Eurozone unemployment rate are expected. Market participants will closely analyze these figures as they provide important insights into the state of the European economy and the ECB's monetary policy outlook. A higher-than-expected CPI reading could increase pressure on the ECB to take a real pause in its rate-cutting cycle. Conversely, a lower CPI figure could strengthen the case for further monetary easing, putting pressure on the euro.
The unemployment rate also matters. A decrease in unemployment suggests a strengthening labor market and could signal that the Eurozone economy is resilient to external shocks. An increase in unemployment, however, could raise concerns about slowing economic growth and weaken the euro.
As for the United Kingdom, today's parliamentary session, focused on reviewing the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Report, will inevitably trigger fluctuations in GBP/USD. Traditionally, reports from Bank of England officials to parliamentarians generate significant interest and speculation in the forex market. Market participants will carefully analyze the statements, seeking clues about future monetary policy decisions regarding interest rates and quantitative easing measures.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to employ the Mean Reversion strategy. Conversely, the Momentum strategy is recommended if the data significantly deviates from expectations.
Buying on a breakout above 1.1453 could lead to growth toward 1.1490 and 1.1530;
Selling on a breakout below 1.1404 could lead to a decline toward 1.1357 and 1.1314.
Buying on a breakout above 1.3555 could lead to growth toward 1.3589 and 1.3626;
Selling on a breakout below 1.3517 could lead to a decline toward 1.3481 and 1.3450.
Buying on a breakout above 143.25 could lead to growth toward 143.74 and 144.20;
Selling on a breakout below 142.79 could lead to selling toward 142.32 and 141.82.
Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1451 with a return below this level;
Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1405 with a return above this level.
Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3557 with a return below this level;
Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3496 with a return above this level.
Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6507 with a return below this level;
Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6448 with a return above this level.
Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3745 with a return below this level;
Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3709 with a return above this level.
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