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Although the market has largely stopped reacting to incoming economic data—especially from the U.S.—and is more focused on the geopolitical and economic moves of Donald Trump, who is steering all processes manually, it is worth paying attention to this week's reports that will signal the prospects for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts.
Starting with Monday's release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI for May, the report showed a continued contraction in the real sector. The index fell to 48.5 from 48.7, against a forecast of a rise to 49.3. This indicates that the manufacturing sector continues to slow, fully in line with the negative GDP dynamics seen in Q1 of this year. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.0 from 50.2, although slightly below the forecast of 52.3.
The data was mixed, but overall, it points to the U.S. economy being in a difficult position. Trump's geopolitical and economic maneuvers have yet to realize his grand vision of MAGA (Make America Great Again). The U.S. is displaying apparent weakness on the geopolitical front, which is spilling over into its domestic political and economic life. The near-criminal strong-arming of trade partners is producing only partial results. America's main economic rival, China, is still holding firm and appears capable of doing so for quite some time.
It seems we can expect endless cycles of threats and retreats toward trade partners. This will have a negative impact on global financial markets, discourage investment in dollar-denominated assets, and push investors away from U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. Dollar Index (ICE) could soon test the 98-point level in this environment. After a slight pullback, gold prices could resume their rise toward the recent local high at 3435.00.
The heavy negative news flow will weigh on investor appetite for active investments. After Trump graciously paused the imposition of extreme tariffs on China and the EU, he now threatens to double tariffs on steel imports to 50%. Essentially, he is looking for weak spots in his competitors to strike and extract concessions—but whether he will succeed remains a major question. Meanwhile, as he maneuvers, markets will remain volatile, nervously fluctuating up and down.
In this week's key data releases, attention is on the eurozone inflation reports, which are expected to decline from 2.2% to 2.0% year-over-year. If confirmed, the European Central Bank will again face pressure to cut interest rates—likely by 0.25% at this week's meeting.
Additionally, U.S. labor market data will be crucial, starting with the ADP report on Wednesday and the Labor Department's report on Friday. Weak job growth numbers would add further pressure on the dollar, moving the Fed closer to cutting rates. This would support further gains in stock markets, but cryptocurrencies might come under pressure.
Of course, the anticipated conversation between Trump and Xi Jinping remains in the spotlight and could ease or escalate tensions between the countries.
Assessing the broader picture, it seems high market volatility will persist this week.
The Dollar Index might continue to decline toward 98.00 due to negative sentiment and labor market data. A break below 98.65 could amplify downward pressure. A good selling point could be near 98.50.
The pair is consolidating above the 163.00 level. The ECB's decision to cut rates by 0.25% and Christine Lagarde's subsequent press conference could weigh on the pair. On this wave, the pair could fall toward 162.10. A sell point could be around 162.90.
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