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On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair experienced only a slight decline, likely due to technical factors. Even on the hourly timeframe, it's clear that the British pound continues to decline very reluctantly. For instance, the euro at least occasionally corrects. The British pound is practically moving without corrections. Thus, one relatively positive JOLTs report from the U.S. is not enough to significantly improve the dollar's dismal position. We believe the upward trend remains intact without alternatives despite the price consolidating below the trendline. At this time, the dollar lacks fundamental support for growth. Trump's tariffs couldn't be overturned in court, and starting today, Trump is raising tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. His rhetoric regarding China, Apple, and several other companies suggests a new trade war escalation is likely.
On Tuesday, several trading signals were generated around the 1.3518 level within the 5-minute timeframe. However, the price spent most of the day moving sideways, resulting in many false signals. Notably, when the decent JOLTs report was released in the U.S., the dollar gained about 20 pips but lost 40 pips in the next half hour. That's all you need to know about the market's willingness to buy the dollar.
In the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair focuses solely on Donald Trump and remains highly skeptical of his policies. There are signs of easing trade tensions, but the market is not experiencing a surge of optimism, and there are far more signs of renewed tensions. Last week, the dollar slightly strengthened, but it turned out to be just a technical correction. Further growth would require positive news about the trade war, which is scarce at the moment.
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair could start a new leg downward, especially since the trendline was breached. However, there are few fundamental reasons for such a move. We remain skeptical about the dollar's ability to rise, so it's better to trade based on technical factors for now.
On the 5-minute timeframe, you can currently trade based on the following levels: 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329-1.3331, 1.3421-1.3443, 1.3518, 1.3580-1.3592, 1.3652-1.3660, 1.3695. For Wednesday, the U.K. and U.S. are scheduled to release services PMI indices and the ADP employment report in the U.S. We believe the ISM Services PMI will attract the most interest among traders.
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.
Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
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