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At the end of the last regular session, U.S. stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.58%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.81%. The industrial Dow Jones strengthened by 0.51%.
Asian indices also rose for the first time in four days after data showed that the U.S. labor market remains in good shape, easing concerns that President Donald Trump's tariff war could push the global economy into a recession. Futures on European indices rose by 0.3%, while futures on U.S. stock indices were little changed.
Just a few days before the U.S. employment report, an unexpected increase in job openings strengthened the Federal Reserve's assertion that the labor market is in good condition, supporting market sentiment. This optimism helped offset investor concerns about Trump's aggressive trade policies, which economists have warned could push the U.S. economy into a recession.
However, this optimism is balanced by the recognition of potential risks. Inflation, despite signs of slowing, remains elevated, creating a dilemma for the Fed. Easing monetary policy too quickly could reignite price pressures, while insufficient measures could lead to an economic recession. In this environment, investors should remain vigilant and carefully analyze incoming data.
"The convergence of clearer macroeconomic and political signals gives markets a breath of fresh air," said Vantage Markets. "Optimism on Wall Street was sparked by positive employment data and was boosted in Asia by post-election clarity in Korea. Together, they gave investors a solid reason to stay at risk."
Although some economists fear a significant slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the coming months under the weight of tariffs, the data has not yet reflected this, supporting policymakers' stance on keeping interest rates unchanged.
In the swaps market, two Federal Reserve rate cuts are forecast for this year, starting in October. "We don't yet see any shocks regarding how tariffs are affecting the labor market or inflation," said LBBW Bank.
Regarding trade negotiations, the U.S. confirmed that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold talks very soon. "The U.S. administration is actively monitoring China's compliance with the Geneva Trade Agreement," said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. According to the White House, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has sent letters to trade partners to remind them of the approaching deadline for negotiations. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted that he is quite optimistic about the prospects of a deal between the U.S. and India.
Meanwhile, yesterday Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, following through on his promise to increase U.S. import duties to help domestic manufacturers. Trump viewed this move as necessary to protect national security. The market has not yet reacted to this development.
As for the S&P 500 technical picture, today the main task for buyers will be to break through the nearest resistance at $5986. This would help drive growth and open the way to a push toward the $6003 level. Equally important for the bulls will be maintaining control above $6024, which would strengthen the buyers' position. In the event of a downward move amid declining risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around the $5967 level. A breakdown below would quickly push the instrument back to $5951 and open the road to $5933.
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