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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rose to the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620, rebounded from it, and turned in favor of the U.S. dollar. A decline began, which may continue today toward the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3520.
The wave situation clearly indicates the continuation of the "bullish" trend. The last upward wave broke above the previous wave's high, and the last downward wave did not break the previous low. Bulls will have difficulty relying on further growth without new announcements from Donald Trump about increasing or introducing new import tariffs, but the U.S. president is prepared to continue raising tariffs and escalate the trade war with China to a new level. Thus, the bulls have every reason for new attacks.
On Thursday, there was virtually no news background for either the pound or the dollar, except for the U.S. report on initial jobless claims. However, who paid attention to that report when at the same time the ECB presented the results of its meeting, cut interest rates, downgraded forecasts for inflation and economic growth, and Christine Lagarde held a press conference? Bullish traders attacked once again for most of the day, unrelated to the ECB meeting. Today could be another "black day" for the U.S. dollar. Although Nonfarm Payrolls reports may show average figures, traders have been expecting the worst for several months now. That means they will be looking for any excuse in U.S. economic data. A month earlier, many also expected weak Payrolls, but the actual figure turned out to be strong. Unemployment remained unchanged. Something similar could happen today. However, if the actual figures are even slightly worse than traders expect, bulls will attack again.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435 and then rebounded from it. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. The bullish trend currently raises no doubts, but a close below 1.3435 would allow for a decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3118. The CCI indicator is forming a "bearish" divergence, which could provide some support for the bears and the dollar. However, I am not counting on a strong decline in the pair yet.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" traders category became much more "bullish" over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators rose by 14,247, while the number of short positions increased by only 2,861. Bears have long lost their advantage in the market. The gap between long and short positions now stands at 35,000 in favor of the bulls: 102,000 versus 67,000.
In my view, the pound still faces prospects of a decline, but recent events are shifting the market in the long term. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has risen from 65,000 to 102,000, while the number of short positions has fallen from 76,000 to 67,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and COT reports show little desire among traders to buy the dollar. Thus, regardless of the overall news background, the dollar continues to fall amid events surrounding Donald Trump.
News Calendar for the U.S. and U.K.:
On Friday, the economic events calendar includes three entries, two of which are rightly considered very important. The influence of the news background on trader sentiment could be very strong today, particularly in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:
Sales of the pair were possible upon a rebound from the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620 on the hourly chart with a target at 1.3520. Purchases today can be considered upon a rebound from the 1.3520 level with a target at 1.3611–1.3620.
The Fibonacci level grids are built between 1.3205–1.2695 on the hourly chart and between 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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