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On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair traded with a downward bias, which was justified by a few factors. First, the pair consolidated below the ascending trendline. We do not believe that a new downward trend for the British pound has begun, as Donald Trump could provoke a new sell-off of the dollar at any moment, and there is currently no positive news on key topics. Nevertheless, from time to time, the pair does need to undergo corrections. Second, UK macroeconomic statistics turned out to be very weak. The unemployment rate rose, and the number of jobless claims was three times higher than forecast. Although the market had anticipated approximately such figures, it still couldn't ignore the reports altogether. Let's recall that the British pound has been rising over the past four months not because the UK has no economic problems but solely due to events related to the U.S. and Donald Trump.
Three trading signals were formed in the 5-minute time frame on Tuesday, but the price movements were again far from ideal. While the morning decline in the pound was easy to explain, the subsequent recovery occurred again simply because the market did not want to buy the U.S. dollar. The consolidation below the 1.3518 level allowed traders to open short positions, but the nearest target level was not reached. The next two signals near the 1.3518 level turned out to be false.
In the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD pair focuses solely on Trump and remains highly skeptical of his policies. While there are some signs of reduced trade tensions, the market is not experiencing a surge of optimism, and there are far more signs of renewed escalation. As before, the market uses every opportunity to sell the dollar rather than buy it. This trend will likely continue until the market sees clear signs that the trade war is ending and Donald Trump stops making decisions beyond his authority.
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair may continue a modest downward move (since the price has consolidated below the trendline), provided Trump does not again interfere with dollar strengthening.
On the 5-minute TF, it is now possible to trade at 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329-1.3331, 1.3421-1.3443, 1.3518, 1.3580-1.3592, 1.3652-1.3660, and 1.3695. The U.S. is scheduled to release its May inflation report, which the market might react to out of habit. If inflation comes in above forecasts, it could support the U.S. dollar.
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.
Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
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