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At the close of the previous regular session, U.S. stock indices ended in positive territory. The S&P 500 rose by 0.55%, while the Nasdaq 100 jumped by 0.63%. The industrial Dow Jones added 0.25%.
During morning trading, futures on U.S. and European stock indices declined, while Asian stocks showed only modest gains following a lack of detail in official comments after the conclusion of negotiations between the U.S. and China—details that were necessary to sustain the recent market rally.
Market sentiment remained cautious, as investors awaited clearer signals of progress in the U.S.–China trade talks. The absence of concrete details after the meeting led to some disappointment, reflected in the decline of futures on American and European indices. Asian markets responded more moderately, with minor gains likely driven by regional factors and the specific dynamics of individual markets. Uncertainty surrounding trade relations between the world's two largest economies continues to be a key factor affecting global markets. Investors are closely monitoring any signals that could indicate a potential resolution to the trade dispute. Without concrete steps in this direction, market volatility is likely to persist.
The impact of trade negotiations on economic growth also remains an important consideration for investors. The prolonged trade war between the U.S. and China may negatively affect the global economy, potentially leading to lower corporate earnings and slower growth. Therefore, the further development of the situation will be crucial in determining the near-term direction of the markets.
Futures contracts on the S&P 500 and European stocks fell by 0.3% after the Asian stock index rose by 0.3%, with Chinese equities showing their best performance in recent days. The dollar index strengthened by 0.1%, and Treasury bonds remained stable ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data. Gold rose by 0.4%.
Although the U.S. and China have reduced trade tensions by agreeing on a preliminary deal, the implementation of the consensus reached in Geneva remains unclear. Much will depend on whether the leaders of both countries agree to the terms. "While both sides praised the progress made during the London talks, much work remains to be done to reach a concrete agreement, leaving room for potential setbacks and uncertainty," said KCM Trade. "These factors may dampen enthusiasm in Asian markets today."
Market perception is that Beijing played its cards well, leveraging rare earth metals and possibly securing some concessions.
As for U.S. inflation data expected today, economists anticipate a slight increase in May, reflecting the modest impact of tariffs, which are mostly on imports. The Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 0.3% in April, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. This may reinforce the Fed's wait-and-see stance regarding further easing, as it assesses the impact of tariffs. Traders are increasingly betting that the central bank will cut interest rates only once this year.
As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance at $6030. This would signal further growth and open the path to a move toward the next level at $6047. Another key objective for the bulls will be maintaining control over the $6050 level, which would further strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a decline amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves near $6013. A breakdown at that level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $5999 and potentially open the way to $5986.
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