11.06.202518:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Currently, the price of gold remains confined within a weekly range. The key factors supporting price growth include a decision by the U.S. federal appellate court to uphold President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs while the court continues reviewing their suspension. This adds uncertainty to the markets, boosting demand for safe-haven assets and thereby supporting the price of the precious metal.

An additional positive factor is growing market expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in 2025, making gold more attractive. At the same time, caution persists among traders: optimism surrounding a potential positive outcome in U.S.–China trade negotiations is keeping market participants from opening new bullish positions in gold. Moreover, there is some strengthening in the U.S. dollar, which is also limiting upward momentum for the yellow metal.

Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, the overnight rebound from the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent move upward favor the bulls. A further push beyond the immediate resistance at $3350 would confirm the bullish outlook, opening the way toward the next obstacle at $3377 and possibly reaching the round level of $3400. However, oscillators on the same chart have not yet begun to show positive momentum, so bulls should remain cautious.

On the other hand, weakness below the $3325 level would likely attract buyers again, with solid support near the round level of $3300. Further selling that leads to a drop below the 200-period SMA zone on the 4-hour chart would shift the bias in favor of the bears, pulling gold prices down toward the monthly low. After that, the XAU/USD pair could continue its corrective decline toward the round level of $3200.