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The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend section. The transformation in the structure has occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade policy. Until February 28—when the decline in the U.S. dollar began—the wave layout resembled a clear downward trend, with corrective wave 2 under construction. However, Donald Trump's initiation of a trade war, aimed at increasing budget revenues and reducing the trade deficit, is currently working against the U.S. currency. Demand for the dollar began to fall sharply, and now the entire trend segment starting on January 13 has taken on an impulsive upward form.
At present, wave 3 within wave 3 is presumably continuing. If this is indeed the case, then the upward movement in quotes will likely persist in the coming weeks and months. However, the U.S. dollar will remain under pressure only if Donald Trump does not reverse his trade policy by 180 degrees. The chances of such a reversal are extremely low, and at the moment, there is no reason to expect a strong rise in the dollar.
The EUR/USD rate remained unchanged on Thursday, just as it had the day before. Therefore, it is safe to say that the results of the Federal Reserve meeting did not impress the market. There was little to be impressed by. The regulator decided to keep the interest rate at the current level of 4.5%, and the market did not receive a single hint regarding the timing of the next round of monetary policy easing. The statements made by Jerome Powell during the press conference contained nothing new. The FOMC Chair once again lamented the complete economic uncertainty caused by the White House's new trade policy. According to him, the Fed is in a favorable position to remain in a wait-and-see mode. Clearly, Mr. Powell anticipates rising inflation and slowing economic growth, as Trump's tariffs are already in effect and will inevitably impact these economic indicators negatively. The only question is: by how much?
Based on all of the above, the market found no reason to increase or decrease demand for the U.S. dollar. The current wave layout remains unchanged, and the failed attempt to break through the 1.1458 level—which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement—could mark the beginning of a new upward wave within the current wave structure. Therefore, I expect the instrument to resume its growth. In the coming days, there may also be news on whether the U.S. will enter a full-scale war with Iran. According to insider information from the White House, a plan for an attack on Iran is already prepared; only President Trump's order is needed to implement it. The U.S. President is not rushing to give such an order, but if America becomes involved in a military conflict, it is unlikely to positively impact the dollar. And let's not forget the global trade war.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend segment. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news backdrop, particularly decisions from Trump and U.S. foreign policy. The targets of wave 3 may extend up to the 1.25 level. Therefore, I continue to consider buying opportunities, with initial targets near 1.1708, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but at present, there are no signs of a reversal or de-escalation.
On the higher wave scale, the wave pattern has shifted to an upward trend. It is likely that we are entering a long-term bullish wave cycle, though the news backdrop—especially from Donald Trump—could still turn everything upside down once again.
Key principles of my analysis:
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