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The dynamics of the British pound will also not be driven by the pound itself or domestic UK news. The reasons are the same: the U.S. involvement in the Middle East conflict could have long-term consequences, even though the confrontation between Iran and the U.S. has been ongoing for 40 years. What we're witnessing now is merely a new escalation of an old conflict. However, this escalation could trigger fresh shocks for global markets. As I've already noted, oil prices may continue to rise, which means higher production and transportation costs worldwide—and, consequently, rising inflation.
In the UK, there is no drama over the recent increase in the consumer price index, which is attributed to rising energy prices. The Bank of England believes that the acceleration of inflation will not be sustainable or long-lasting. However, oil prices could continue to rise and may remain high instead of dropping back to $60.
Let's not forget that America has entered a new open conflict despite Donald Trump's rise to office as the world's supposed chief peacemaker. Many experts even claimed that Trump aspired to win a Nobel Peace Prize for resolving various global conflicts. However, after five months, Trump is effectively losing to himself with a score of 0–1. Zero conflicts have been resolved under his direct involvement. One conflict has intensified and now threatens to "blow up" the Middle East. Even Syria is reportedly ready to join the war against Israel. And if we recall Trump's claim that he could end the Russia–Ukraine conflict in 24 hours, that would bring the score to 0–2—not in the U.S. president's favor.
Back to Britain. On Monday, we will see the release of the services and manufacturing PMIs. On Tuesday, there will be a speech from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, followed by another speech from Bailey on Thursday. On Friday, the final Q1 GDP estimate will be published. I'm interested in Bailey's remarks, as last week's BoE meeting passed without his commentary. Hearing the Governor's views and expectations on key economic indicators would be helpful. Nonetheless, most market attention will focus on the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues forming an upward trend segment. The wave pattern still completely depends on the news backdrop related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets of wave 3 could extend up to the 1.25 area. Therefore, I consider buying positions with initial targets around 1.1708, corresponding to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the upward trend, but currently, there are no signs of either a reversal or de-escalation.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. With Trump, markets may still face many shocks and reversals that could seriously impact wave structures, but at the moment, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump continues to do everything possible to reduce demand for the dollar. The targets of the upward wave 3 are near 1.3708, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci level from the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider buying positions, as the market shows no intention of reversing the trend.
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