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Today, the USD/CHF pair continues to remain under pressure for the second day in a row, having dropped to the key psychological level of 0.8100 and updated its weekly low. The primary factor behind this movement is the weakening of the U.S. dollar amid a general decline in demand for it.
Following the release of U.S. business activity data, which turned out to be mixed, and more dovish remarks from FOMC members, investors' expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July have increased. At the same time, President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has eased concerns over geopolitical risks and undermined the dollar's status as a global reserve currency.
The Swiss franc is receiving support from signals by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) that it does not plan further interest rate cuts. This disappointed investors who had anticipated a return to negative rates this year and now acts as a headwind for the USD/CHF pair.
From a technical standpoint, yesterday's break below the support level of 0.8150 increases the likelihood of further losses for USD/CHF. However, market participants remain cautious and are reluctant to make aggressive downside bets, preferring to wait for clearer signals from upcoming speeches by FOMC members and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before Congress.
Key macroeconomic data — particularly the Consumer Confidence Index — may influence dollar dynamics and provide additional momentum for the pair. Given that oscillators on the daily chart remain in negative territory, the path of least resistance for the pair is downward.
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