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The 4-hour (H4) chart for the EUR/USD pair reveals a persistent strong bearish trend, with selling pressure dominating price action. The pair is currently trading within the 1.1338–1.1334 range following a continuous decline that saw prices break through several key pivot levels.
Technical Analysis and Price Action
Bearish Channel Structure: The EUR/USD pair is moving within a primary bearish channel (blue) that defines the overall downward trend, alongside a secondary, momentum-accelerated bearish channel (pink/red). The pair faced intense selling pressure after failing to break above upper weekly resistance levels—specifically Weekly R3 at 1.1606 and Weekly R2 at 1.1551.
Breach of Weekly Pivot Levels: The decline extended past the first weekly resistance level (Weekly R1) at 1.1470 and continued downward, clearly breaking the weekly pivot point at 1.1415. Prices are currently trading near the first weekly support level (Weekly S1) at 1.1330, while testing the lower boundary of the accelerated secondary channel.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Key Resistance Levels:
Resistance 1: 1.1395–1.1415 (Weekly Pivot point and the previously broken level). Second Resistance: 1.1470 (Weekly R1).
Pivot Resistance: 1.1551 (Weekly R2).
Key Support Levels:
First Support: 1.1330 (Weekly S1 and the recent intraday low).
Second Support: 1.1305 (Next intraday support level and the lower boundary of the selling range).
Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations
Bearish Scenario (Primary):
A continuation of the downtrend is the most likely scenario as long as the price trades below the weekly pivot level of 1.1415 and remains within the pink bearish channel.
Recommendation: Sell on any corrective bounce near the 1.1370–1.1415 zone.
Technical Targets: Breaking and stabilizing below the Weekly S1 level (1.1330) opens the way to target 1.1305 as a key near-term objective.
Stop Loss: A 4-hour candle close above 1.1435.
Bullish Corrective Scenario (Alternative):
This scenario activates if buyers successfully defend the 1.1330 support level and a bullish reversal candle appears.
Validation Condition: Breaking above 1.1370, followed by reclaiming levels above 1.1415 with a consecutive 4-hour candle.
Technical Targets: Initiation of a bullish corrective wave targeting a retest of the 1.1470 level. Risk Management
Trading the EUR/USD pair amidst the current selling pressure requires strict adherence to capital management rules and the precise setting of stop-loss orders, while ensuring that no more than 1% to 2% of the total investment portfolio is risked on any single trade.
The H1 chart for the EUR/USD pair shows a continuing bearish trend; the pair is currently trading near the 1.1338 level following an accelerated downward move and a test of intraday lows near 1.1309.
Technical Analysis and Price Action
Bearish Channel Structure: The price is moving within a primary bearish channel (blue) that reflects the overall trend, alongside a secondary, momentum-accelerated bearish channel (pink/red). The pair faced intense selling pressure after failing to rally toward upper resistance levels—specifically the Weekly Pivot at 1.1415 and the second daily resistance (Daily R2) at 1.1405.
Interaction with Pivot Levels: Sellers successfully drove the price below the first daily resistance level (Daily R1) at 1.1372, followed by a break of the Daily Pivot at 1.1342. This broken level (1.1342) has now turned into a critical resistance point, hindering attempts at an intraday corrective rebound.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Key Resistance Levels:
Resistance 1: 1.1342 (Daily Pivot, now acting as resistance).
Resistance 2: 1.1372 (Daily R1). Key Resistance: 1.1405 – 1.1415 (Daily R2 and Weekly Pivot).
Key Support Levels:
Support 1: 1.1309 (Daily S1 and the lower bound of intraday movements).
Support 2: 1.1280 (Extension level of the accelerated sub-channel).
Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations
Bearish Scenario (Primary):
A continuation of the downtrend is the most likely scenario as long as the price trades below the daily pivot (1.1342) and within the pink bearish channel.
Recommendation: Sell on any corrective bounce near the 1.1342 – 1.1355 zone.
Technical Targets: Retesting the break of Daily S1 at 1.1309 as the primary target, followed by an extension toward 1.1280 as the secondary target.
Stop Loss: A one-hour candle close above 1.1372.
Bullish Corrective Scenario (Alternative):
This scenario is triggered if the price breaks above the daily pivot and sustains trading above it for a full one-hour candle.
Validation Condition: Breaking 1.1342 and stabilizing above it.
Technical Targets: Initiation of a bullish correction targeting a retest of the 1.1372 level.
Risk Management
Trading the EUR/USD pair within the current bearish trend requires strict adherence to stop-loss orders, with risk limited to 1%–2% of capital per trade.
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