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Gold is drawing renewed selling interest today after breaking below the key $3300 level. Traders are awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is viewed as a crucial indicator for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. These figures are expected to significantly influence the short-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar and, by extension, the price of gold.
Despite some optimism around a potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran and a broader risk-on sentiment diverting investors away from safe-haven assets, concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and prevailing bearish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar may help limit the downside for gold. Notably, data released yesterday showed that the U.S. economy contracted more than expected in the first quarter. This reinforces expectations of Fed rate cuts and keeps the dollar subdued near multi-year lows, indirectly supporting demand for gold as a defensive asset.
Earlier this week, Jerome Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve is in a favorable position to delay interest rate cuts until it has better control over the inflationary impact of high tariffs. These remarks drew renewed criticism from President Donald Trump, who again called for lower rates and even hinted at the possibility of replacing Powell as early as September or October.
Such developments raise concerns about potential threats to the Fed's independence and may limit any positive reaction of the U.S. dollar to upcoming inflation data. As a result, gold prices are unlikely to experience a sharp and sustained decline.
From a technical perspective, today's intraday drop below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart could be viewed as a fresh trigger for sellers. Given that daily chart oscillators are gaining downside momentum, the precious metal could accelerate its decline toward the $3245 level, with further support seen at the horizontal level of $3210, the psychological $3200 mark, and potentially the $3175 level.
On the other hand, the $3324–3325 level is acting as immediate resistance, ahead of the $3350 level. Above that, further resistance lies near $3368–3370, which could limit additional gains. However, a sustained move above this range would allow XAU/USD to revisit the $3400 level. Continued buying interest beyond that point would invalidate the bearish outlook and shift momentum in favor of the bulls.
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