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Bitcoin has pulled back below the $108,000 level, while Ethereum briefly rose above $2,500 over the weekend before retreating again. Clearly, traders will be closely monitoring several upcoming macroeconomic data to be released this week, as well as remarks from central bank policymakers speaking at the European Central Bank Forum.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak on Tuesday, alongside the heads of the central banks of the UK, South Korea, and Japan.
Last week, Powell told lawmakers that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates, prompting another round of criticism from US President Donald Trump, who accused Powell of keeping rates artificially high. This clash between the executive branch and the independent central bank underscores the political pressure on monetary policy. Such confrontations raise concerns about the Fed's independence and the potential influence of political agendas on economic decision-making. Traders are watching developments closely, as uncertainty about the Fed's future rate path could fuel volatility and negatively affect the cryptocurrency market.
A series of important labor market reports is also scheduled for release this week. These include May's JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), and June's nonfarm payrolls and US unemployment rate—all of which will shape the Fed's next policy decisions and could steer the direction of the crypto market.
The JOLTS data will provide insight into the number of job openings and labor turnover, reflecting labor demand and employer confidence. A rise in job openings may suggest a strong economy, likely encouraging the Fed to stay cautious. Conversely, a drop in vacancies may signal economic slowdown and potential policy easing.
However, the June nonfarm payrolls report will be the most crucial release. It reflects the number of new jobs created and is a key gauge of economic health. The unemployment rate, published alongside the NFP, will also be closely analyzed. A falling unemployment rate may indicate an overheating labor market and mounting inflationary pressure—potentially prompting the Fed to act more aggressively. On the other hand, a rising unemployment rate may lead the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance, which is generally favorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Investors will also be paying attention to tariff negotiations ahead of the July 8–9 deadlines, as well as the movement of the U.S. dollar. With Bitcoin's Fear and Greed Index sitting at 66, overall sentiment appears healthy, but one major negative macroeconomic shift could wipe that out in an instant.
Trading tips
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) From a technical viewpoint, buyers are currently aiming to reclaim the $107,700 level. A move above this would open the door to $108,200, followed closely by $108,800. The ultimate target is the recent high around $109,300. A breakout above this level would confirm a further bullish trend. If Bitcoin falls, the $107,000 level is expected to act as initial support. A move below this could quickly push BTC down toward $106,500, with the final downside target at $105,900.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) Technically, a solid consolidation above $2,469 would open the path to $2,498, with the final upside target near $2,528. A breakout beyond that would signal renewed buyer interest. In case of a decline, $2,425 is the first major support. A drop below this could send ETH quickly down toward $2,390, with the final target at $2,355.
Chart notes:
A price interaction with these moving averages often results in either a market slowdown or a fresh price impulse.
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