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At the end of yesterday's trading, US stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.52%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.47%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.43%.
The indices kicked off the second half of the year with record gains amid growing expectations that the US economy will withstand the uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's tariff agenda.
According to media reports, the European Union is ready to sign a trade agreement with the US that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of the bloc's export goods. However, the EU wants the US to commit to lower rates on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft.
The MSCI All Country World Index, which closed at a record high on Monday, rose for the fourth straight day. Asian indices also added about 0.3%. Futures on European stock indices edged up by 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures corrected by 0.2% after the benchmark posted its best quarter since December 2023. Treasury bonds and gold rose for the second day in a row.
"I think the second half of the year is actually still quite positive," said analysts at Ten Cap. "We disagree with many who are calling for a major sharp downturn in the stock market. We believe the market's fundamentals remain quite strong."
At the end of last month, hopes that the US is moving closer to concrete agreements with its major trading partners helped push indexes on Wall Street to their historical highs. Bets that the Federal Reserve will resume a dovish monetary policy also contributed to the strongest first-half performance for Treasury bonds in five years. Macroeconomic data pointing to a slowdown in economic growth in both the US and globally have also impacted the Treasury market. These signals prompted investors to seek refuge in safer assets such as government bonds, leading to lower yields and rising prices.
However, despite favorable conditions for Treasuries in the first half of the year, experts warn of potential risks in the second half. Changes in the economic environment, unexpected inflation spikes, or shifts in Federal Reserve policy could negatively affect the bond market. Investors are advised to closely monitor developments and adjust their investment strategies in line with changing market conditions.
Nevertheless, broader uncertainty around Trump's tariff and fiscal agenda regarding the long-term structure of the US economy is reflected in the dollar's 10.8% decline over the first six months of the year — its worst performance since 1973. The president's $3.3 trillion tax-and-spending bill, currently under debate in the Senate, is also raising concerns over the country's growing deficit.
As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance at 6,200. This would support further growth and open the path toward a new level at 6,211. Equally important for the bulls will be maintaining control over the 6,235 level, which would further strengthen the buyers' position. In the event of a downward move due to declining risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around 6,185. A break below this level could quickly push the instrument back to 6,169 and open the road to 6,152.
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