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The USD/JPY pair is holding above the key 144.00 level amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Strong household spending data released today in Japan has strengthened expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, supporting the yen's appreciation. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's policy stance is reinforcing the yen's status as a safe-haven asset.
However, investor concerns remain elevated due to trade tensions sparked by Trump's threats to impose additional tariffs on Japanese goods, citing Japan's alleged reluctance to purchase U.S. rice. These developments could complicate the Bank of Japan's plans to normalize its monetary policy. Moreover, the current risk-sensitive market environment limits the potential for further appreciation of the Japanese currency. With liquidity reduced ahead of the upcoming U.S. Independence Day holiday, traders are adopting a cautious approach and avoiding aggressive positions.
From a technical standpoint, yesterday's breakout above the 144.50 level, as well as the 200- and 100-period simple moving averages on the 4-hour chart, provided a bullish signal for USD/JPY. However, the pair's failure to break resistance near 145.25 and the subsequent pullback call for caution regarding further upward potential.
If the decline continues, the pair is expected to find support near the 144.20 horizontal zone, followed by the psychological level at 144.00. A sustained break below the mother bar low around 143.75 would shift the advantage to the bears, potentially driving USD/JPY toward intermediate support at 143.45 and further down to 143.00.
The downward trend may extend toward the 142.70–142.65 level, which coincides with the monthly low recorded on Tuesday.
On the other hand, the psychological level at 145.00 now serves as the nearest resistance, followed by the 145.25–145.30 level. A breakout above this level would open the way for a potential move toward the 146.00 round figure.
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