11.07.202508:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch for on July 11th? A Fundamental Overview for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Friday, but the volume is still greater than on any previous day this week. The UK will release GDP and industrial production data. These might appear to be important enough to trigger a reaction, but any market response will likely stem from the otherwise empty economic calendar rather than the significance of these reports. The GDP report covers monthly data, not quarterly, so industrial production is likely to carry more weight.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There are no notable fundamental events scheduled for Friday. As mentioned earlier, recent speeches from ECB, Fed, and Bank of England officials have had minimal influence on the market. The monetary policy stance of all three central banks is already clear, leaving little room for interpretation. At present, monetary policy itself has almost no direct impact on currency movements.

The trade war remains the primary concern for markets, and there are still no signs of a resolution. Tensions continue to rise, as President Donald Trump has managed to conclude only three trade agreements so far, one of which is highly questionable. Furthermore, the market sees little reason for optimism while tariffs remain in place. This week, the U.S. president decided once again to increase tariffs on countries reluctant to engage in negotiations with Washington (i.e., nearly all of them), while also raising import duties on copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. Clearly, the situation is not improving. Therefore, we still see no grounds for sustained U.S. dollar growth.

General Conclusions:

On the final trading day of the week, both major currency pairs may show subdued activity, as no important events or reports are scheduled. The ongoing technical corrections may end at any moment. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are trading below descending trendlines; a breakout above these lines would indicate a trend reversal.

Basic Trading System Rules:

1. Signal strength is determined by how long it takes for the signal to form (rebound or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false trades occur near a level, ignore any subsequent signals from that level.
3. During sideways market conditions (flat), false signals may be frequent—or absent altogether. It is best to stop trading at the first sign of a flat market.
4. Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session, after which all open positions should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should be traded only when there is sufficient volatility and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or channel.
6. If two levels are located too close together (5–20 points), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Once the price moves 15–20 points in the correct direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Notes:

• Support and resistance levels are the targets for buy/sell trades. Take Profit levels can be set near these zones.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trendlines that help determine the preferred trading direction.
• MACD (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and signal line and serves as an auxiliary signal indicator.
• Major speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can have a significant impact on currency pair movements. During such events, it is advisable to trade with caution or exit the market entirely to avoid sharp reversals.

Beginner traders should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are essential for long-term success in Forex trading.