21.07.202519:43 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

On Monday, the Japanese yen is struggling to capitalize on a modest correction amid a weaker US dollar. Sunday's elections to Japan's upper house of parliament put strong pressure on the ruling coalition and raised concerns about the country's growing public debt. The opposition called for increased spending and tax cuts, which could further complicate trade negotiations with the US ahead of the looming August 1 tariff deadline. Additionally, slowing economic growth, declining real wages, and signs of easing inflation may prompt the Bank of Japan to hold off on raising interest rates in the near term, thereby exerting additional pressure on the yen.

At the same time, investors remain cautious due to concerns over the potential negative impact of President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policy. These concerns offer some support to the yen as a safe-haven currency. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains below the monthly high reached last week, due to mixed signals about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is limiting the upside for the USD/JPY pair.

In the absence of major economic data on Monday, active traders are advised to remain cautious. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop still favors yen bears: any corrective declines in the pair may be viewed as buying opportunities.

From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY finds support near the 147.60–147.70 level, which coincides with the 200-hour SMA. A break below this zone would bring the round level of 147.00 into focus, below which the outlook could shift in favor of the bears.

As for the bulls, it would be prudent to wait for sustained buying beyond the 149.15–149.20 range or a break above the multi-month high before considering further upside. Given that oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in positive territory, spot prices could potentially breach the psychological 150.00 level, with interim resistance around 149.40 near the 200-day SMA.