29.07.202507:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on July 29? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are, frankly, very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday, and traders' minds are not focused on counting the number of job openings in the U.S. On Monday, Donald Trump announced the signing of a trade agreement that appears to be beneficial only to the U.S. Therefore, on Tuesday, traders may continue to sell off the euro and the pound. Trump may also announce new trade deals. Additionally, the FOMC meeting will be held on Wednesday, and important U.S. macroeconomic data are scheduled to be published on Friday. All these events may still influence the dollar's exchange rate.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There are no notable fundamental events on Tuesday. As mentioned earlier, the monetary policy of any central bank currently holds little importance, and it is entirely transparent and clear to traders. No sharp changes in sentiment or plans from central banks are expected, so speeches by central bank officials are not drawing much attention.

At the top of the market's agenda remains the trade war, which on Monday took a new form. We continue to believe that any trade agreement that retains tariffs is still a trade war, just "in another guise." Deals like the one signed with the European Union are favorable to the U.S., so each new similar deal may prompt further growth of the U.S. dollar. However, globally and fundamentally, the market will continue to take into account the same new trade architecture and Donald Trump's protectionist policies. We believe that such a backdrop is not suitable for the dollar's long-term growth. Therefore, we still view the current situation as a downward correction, not the start of a new bullish trend.

Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to decline. Few important events are scheduled for this day, so volatility may be significantly lower than on Monday. Trading should be based exclusively on technical levels. The British pound currently has a strong support zone at 1.3329–1.3331, while the euro has a solid support area at 1.1563–1.1571.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.