11.08.202500:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Euro Currency. Weekly Preview

The euro remains on an upward path against the U.S. dollar, supported by both the news backdrop and the wave pattern. Two of the most important types of analysis favor the EU currency. At the same time, I still cannot say that the euro is appreciating due to the strength of the European economy or its prospects. I would even say the opposite: after the signing of the trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, the U.S. economy appears to have more attractive prospects. However, the U.S. has its limiting factor — Donald Trump. The economy is growing with the help of tariffs, but many other, no less important indicators are declining. Meanwhile, the global trade war continues to have an extremely negative impact on investors' willingness to buy the dollar.

There will be a few events in the eurozone. On Tuesday, the ZEW economic sentiment indices will be released. On Wednesday, Germany's final July inflation reading. On Thursday, June industrial production and the second preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP. As we can see, there will not be many reports, and among them, I would only highlight eurozone industrial production. However, this is just one report, while there are far more significant ongoing factors that consistently reduce demand for the U.S. currency.

I believe that the market's news drivers will remain unchanged. Traders will continue to focus mainly on new tariffs and new statements from Trump. Unfortunately, this has been the picture throughout 2025. Even meetings of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England do not have as strong an impact on market sentiment as Trump does.

That said, there is a reasonably convenient conclusion for my readers. Since the dollar's fate depends on Trump, and the fate of various instruments depends on the dollar, it follows that one can simply monitor the U.S. president. At least, I do not see other events being taken as seriously by the market as the actions of the American president.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues building an upward section of the trend. The wave count still entirely depends on the news backdrop related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets for this trend section may extend up to the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buying with targets around 1.1875, which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci, and higher. I assume that the construction of wave 4 has been completed. Accordingly, now is a good time to buy.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive section of the trend. Under Trump, markets may still face numerous shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave structure, but for now, the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the upward section are now located near 1.4017. At present, I assume that the construction of the downward wave 4 has been completed. Therefore, I expect the upward wave set to continue and consider buying with a target of 1.4017.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out.
3. One can never have 100% certainty in the market's direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.