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At last, the topic of Donald Trump's trade war has, at least for a while, moved into the background. It has not disappeared but has allowed other important events to take center stage. Among political — and even geopolitical — developments, the main one is the meeting between the leaders of Russia and the United States in Alaska at the end of this week. From an economic standpoint, the key event is, of course, the release of the U.S. inflation report.
The entire news space is dominated by coverage of the upcoming summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. This is indeed a highly significant event, which, if successful, could become a long-term positive factor for financial markets. An initial agreement to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, followed by its full settlement, as well as the possible signing of important bilateral agreements between the U.S. and Russia, would lead to a significant reduction in global geopolitical tensions. This would primarily have a negative impact on gold prices as a safe-haven asset, while also having an overall positive effect on markets. This category could also include the extension of the pause in the trade war between Washington and Beijing for another 90 days.
As for the second key topic of the day — the release of U.S. consumer inflation data, which could influence the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September — this, too, could have a long-lasting effect. Investors link this report to the probability of a rate cut next month. An increase in this macroeconomic indicator above the forecast — recall that overall annual consumer inflation is expected to rise to 2.8% from 2.7%, and core inflation to 3.0% from 2.9%, with overall monthly inflation expected to decline from 0.3% to 0.2% in July, while core monthly inflation is expected to increase from 0.2% to 0.3% — could place limited pressure on forecasts for a September rate cut. This could have a negative effect on stock demand and support the dollar's exchange rate.
At the same time, such a scenario would most likely be short-lived, as Donald Trump — who is actively pushing for rate cuts to as low as 1.0% or even zero — is aiming to stimulate domestic production, which is extremely difficult to achieve when the key interest rate is at 4.50%. Therefore, I believe that any potential market decline would be temporary and would subsequently be replaced by growth, supported by the same expectations of rate cuts.
In summary, assessing the overall market picture, I believe it remains moderately positive and will likely stay that way until the results of the meeting between the leaders of Russia and the United States are known.
The pair is trading above the 0.6495 level. A possible rise in U.S. inflation could place limited pressure on the pair, pushing it down toward 0.6425. The 0.6489 mark could serve as a selling level.
The U.S. dollar index could receive short-term support if U.S. consumer inflation rises. In this case, it may climb toward 99.00 points after breaking above the 98.60 level. The 98.67 mark could serve as a buying level.
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