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The euro and the pound continued to move higher following news that the Federal Reserve has fewer and fewer arguments in favor of maintaining high interest rates.
The US Consumer Price Index for July matched economists' forecasts, which in some respects indicated a slowdown in inflation growth. This led to a weakening of the US dollar. Investors took this as a signal that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance on interest rates.
Despite the positive market reaction, economists warn against drawing premature conclusions. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a slight annual increase above forecasts and remains above the target level. This means the Fed is likely to continue closely monitoring economic data and will be ready to act if inflation does not sustainably move toward the 2% target.
This morning, the euro's upward movement may slow, as apart from Germany's CPI and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data, no other reports are due. These indicators are certainly important for assessing inflationary trends in the eurozone's largest economy, but the lack of other reports may limit their impact on the currency market to confirm or contradict the figures. Traders are likely to act cautiously, waiting for clearer signals regarding the German economy and the European Central Bank's monetary policy. Any deviation of the actual CPI and HICP readings from forecasts could trigger short-term fluctuations in the euro.
If the data match economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data are significantly above or below expectations, the Momentum strategy would be preferable.
Buying on a breakout above 1.1697 could push the euro toward 1.1722 and 1.1744;
Selling on a breakout below 1.1666 could push the euro down toward 1.1635 and 1.1600.
Buying on a breakout above 1.3518 could push the pound toward 1.3553 and 1.3583;
Selling on a breakout below 1.3480 could push the pound down toward 1.3450 and 1.3410.
Buying on a breakout above 148.10 could push the dollar toward 148.50 and 149.00;
Selling on a breakout below 147.85 could lead to dollar selling toward 147.50 and 147.25.
Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1701, returning below this level;
Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1664, returning to this level.
Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3517, returning below this level;
Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3485, returning to this level.
Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6542, returning below this level;
Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6517, returning to this level.
Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3790, returning below this level;
Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3760, returning to this level.
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