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For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulsive wave structure. The wave configuration is almost identical to EUR/USD, as the only real driver here remains the U.S. dollar. Demand for the dollar is declining across the broader market in the medium term, leading many instruments to show almost the same dynamics. At present, wave 4 is presumed to be complete. If this is correct, the pair's upward movement should continue within impulsive wave 5. Wave 4 could still take the form of a five-wave structure, but this is not the most likely scenario.
It should be noted that much in the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies — not only trade policy. From time to time, positive news emerges from the U.S., but the market remains focused on ongoing uncertainty in the economy, contradictory decisions and statements by Trump, and the White House's hostile, protectionist external stance. Global tensions are increasing, and, as noted, the U.S. dollar remains the primary driver of these movements, absorbing the bulk of the market impact.
The GBP/USD rate rose by about 70 basis points on Wednesday and may climb further before the close. Despite the absence of a significant news backdrop, market participants continue to increase long positions — or more precisely, sell the U.S. dollar. This week's inflation report has given the Federal Reserve room to cut rates in September without negative repercussions, while last week's NonFarm Payrolls report effectively made a rate cut necessary. Now, there is almost no doubt about monetary policy easing at the next meeting.
However, it is not only the Fed's policy that is weighing on the U.S. dollar. The construction of the upward wave structure continues, and completing it would require strong reasons for a reversal — which are currently absent. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to hold talks, the outcome of which remains uncertain. The market is currently highly optimistic, assuming there are real chances of ending the conflict in Ukraine. However, it is important to recall that the demands of Kyiv and Moscow are almost completely opposed.
In recent days, officials from Russia and Ukraine have put forward several different "lists of demands" that the other side must meet for the conflict to end. Even within the same country, these lists differ significantly. In the U.S., there is an expectation that Moscow might agree to a territorial exchange in exchange for the lifting of most sanctions. In Europe, the view is that a ceasefire should be achieved first, after which negotiations can continue. However, negotiations require concessions from both sides. Kyiv has already rejected any territorial concessions. If one side refuses to compromise, the military conflict will continue — and in that case, the dollar could temporarily strengthen. Therefore, Friday's outcome is key.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. The market is in a bullish, impulsive trend segment. Under Donald Trump's administration, markets may face many more shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave structure, but at present, the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the current upward segment are now near 1.4017. I currently assume that the formation of corrective wave 4 is complete. Therefore, I recommend buying with a target of 1.4017.
Core principles of my analysis:
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