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As I have already noted in other reviews, the coming week will once again unfold under the banner of geopolitical events. All of the most significant economic data have already been released, central bank meetings have taken place, and Donald Trump is now busy with efforts to resolve the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, one may hope that no new tariffs will be introduced over the next 5–6 days. Let me remind you that the primary reason for the sharp decline of the U.S. dollar in 2025 is Trump's Global Trade War. Accordingly, any new tariffs provide yet another reason to sell the dollar.
For the dollar, however, the entire year 2025 is shaping up to be one of the worst in recent decades. The dollar is falling not only because of the trade war, but also due to Trump's own policies. He believes that he alone should decide under what terms other countries may trade with the U.S., which conflicts in the world should end, how the Federal Reserve should act, and what kind of statistics the Bureau of Statistics should provide. As a result, America is transforming from a democratic state into an authoritarian one, a country of one man. Market participants understand this, which is why they increasingly prefer to deal with non-U.S. stocks, bonds, and currencies.
In the U.K., the inflation report for July will be released next week. The indicator is likely to continue rising, with economists expecting growth to 3.7–3.8% year-on-year. If these figures are confirmed on Wednesday, demand for the British pound may strengthen further, since rising inflation means the next round of monetary policy easing by the Bank of England will not come anytime soon. Meanwhile, the Fed will resume its cycle of rate cuts at its next meeting and is expected to reduce the rate at least twice by year-end. In other words, the Fed is on the verge of significant policy easing, regardless of inflation, due to Trump and the "cooling" of the labor market. The BoE, however, can wait as long as necessary until inflation begins to decline again before resuming policy easing.
On Thursday, the August business activity indices in services and manufacturing will be published, which will also be of interest. On Friday, retail trade data will follow. Overall, the week will feature relatively few events and reports, but it is already clear that the U.S. dollar will once again face serious pressure.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues forming an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news background connected with Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets for this trend segment may extend as far as the 25th figure. Therefore, I continue to consider buying with targets around 1.1875, which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci, and above. I assume that the construction of wave 4 has been completed. Accordingly, now is a good time to buy.
The wave structure of GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, the markets may still face a large number of shocks and reversals, which could significantly affect the wave structure, but at present, the working scenario remains intact. The targets of the upward trend segment are now located near 1.4017. At the moment, I assume that the formation of downward wave 4 has been completed. Therefore, I recommend buying with a target of 1.4017.
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