18.08.202512:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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At the start of the new week, the GBP/JPY pair showed positive momentum, approaching the psychological level of 200.00 during the Asian session. Prices remain close to the yearly high reached last week and may continue to rise, supported by several favorable factors.

The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska did not produce significant breakthroughs, but investors remain optimistic about prospects for ending the prolonged conflict in Ukraine. This sentiment boosts market interest and weakens the safe-haven Japanese yen. At the same time, the British pound continues to draw support from upbeat U.K. GDP data released last week, providing an additional factor in favor of GBP/JPY's growth.

According to the data published last Thursday, the U.K. economy grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the period ending June 2025. Growth slowed compared to 0.7% in Q1 but significantly exceeded market expectations of 0.1%. This result has led traders to reassess expectations regarding the Bank of England's next rate cut, scheduled for November. At the same time, these figures contrast with expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike later this year.

Friday's releases indicated that Japan's economy grew faster than expected in Q2, despite external headwinds such as U.S. tariffs. In addition, the Bank of Japan's upgraded inflation forecast strengthened expectations that the regulator will continue moving toward policy normalization despite domestic political uncertainty. In this context, before opening new long positions in GBP/JPY, it may be worth waiting for a stronger wave of buying interest.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, supporting the upbeat outlook for the pair. However, if prices fall below the 9-day EMA near the round level of 199.00, they may enter a range for some time. A breakout above the psychological level of 200.00, on the other hand, would accelerate the pair's growth.

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