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Today, the EUR/USD pair is losing ground amid the strengthening of the U.S. dollar following the release on Wednesday of the FOMC meeting minutes. The document noted that most Fed members emphasized that inflation risks outweighed concerns about the labor market, as the introduction of tariff measures deepened divisions among committee members. Most of them considered it appropriate to keep the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25–4.50%.
According to the FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), there is an 82% probability of a Fed rate cut in September.
On the euro side, according to the President of the European Central Bank, recent trade agreements helped reduce uncertainty, though not completely eliminate it. At the same time, Lagarde stressed that Europe's economy is showing resilience in a challenging global environment.
Today, attention should be paid to the release of the German services sector Consumer Price Index (HCOB). It is expected that the PMI for this sector will come in at 50.3. Services sector PMI indices for the eurozone (HCOB) will also be published. According to forecasts, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the European Union in July will rise by 2% year-over-year, which is in line with expectations. Core HICP is also expected to remain at 2.3% year-over-year, unchanged from June's data.
However, the main focus should remain on Friday's speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming, which is likely to shed light on the September monetary policy decision.
From a technical perspective, the fact that the price is slipping below the 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart favors the bears, especially as oscillators on this chart are also negative. The 1.1650 level, now resistance, previously served as support. The EUR/USD pair will find support at yesterday's low, below which lies the key psychological level of 1.1600. On the daily chart, however, oscillators remain neutral, suggesting that the pair is not ready for a broader decline.
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