25.08.202511:20 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Euro Extended Gains Against the Dollar

Saturday's speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde helped the euro extend its rise today.

In her address at the Jackson Hole symposium, Lagarde warned against questioning the independence of policymakers and their institutions, stating that the economy risks becoming inefficient if governments interfere in setting interest rates.

"Independence of any central bank is critically important," Lagarde said. "We must be accountable, we must report and answer all questions, whether from the U.S. Congress or the European Parliament. But it is vital that the central bank remains independent."

Her remarks came in the context of growing pressure on central banks worldwide to coordinate monetary and fiscal policy more closely. Lagarde emphasized that central bank independence is the cornerstone of a stable and predictable economic environment.

Independence from political influence allows central banks to base decisions solely on macroeconomic indicators and forecasts, rather than on short-term political goals. Government intervention could lead to interest rate manipulation for immediate benefits, such as election-driven populism, which ultimately undermines confidence in the currency and fuels inflation.

"Historical experience shows that countries with independent central banks have lower inflation and more stable economic growth," Lagarde noted. She added that during her tenure as head of the International Monetary Fund, she witnessed firsthand what happens when central bank independence is undermined. "Governance becomes ineffective, authorities start doing things they should not do," Lagarde said. "The next step is breakdown. That is instability, if not worse. That is why I believe this should not even be up for discussion."

Technical Picture for EUR/USD: At the moment, buyers need to take control of the 1.1740 level. Only this will allow them to target a test of 1.1780. From there, a move toward 1.1830 is possible, but achieving it without support from major players will be quite difficult. The ultimate upside target is the 1.1865 high. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buying interest to appear around 1.1700. If none emerges, it would be preferable to wait for a renewal of the 1.1655 low or to consider long positions from 1.1625.

Technical Picture for GBP/USD: Pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3530. Only this will allow them to aim for 1.3560, above which a breakout will be more challenging. The furthest upside target is the 1.3590 level. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control of 1.3490. If successful, a breakout of this range would deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3455 low, with the prospect of extending the move toward 1.3425.