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Gold has stabilized after two days of gains amid concerns about Federal Reserve independence and US inflation risks.
Currently, investors are closely watching signals from the Fed regarding the future path for interest rates, and fears of possible political pressure on the Fed to lower rates before inflation is entirely under control are fueling demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
It's worth noting that US inflation, while it has come down, remains high despite the Fed's efforts to tighten. The latest inflation data, which exceeded expectations, raised fears that the Fed may keep rates higher for longer than previously anticipated. However, recent statements from Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have reduced the likelihood of this scenario. This, in turn, supports gold prices as investors seek ways to hedge against currency depreciation.
Let me remind you that pressure on Fed officials from the White House increased early this week. Fed Governor Lisa Cook vowed to challenge President Donald Trump's decision to fire her over allegations of mortgage document forgery. Her lawyer stated that the attempt to dismiss her lacks any factual or legal basis. If Trump succeeds in removing Cook, it will allow him to secure a four-person majority on the Fed's seven-member board of governors. The president has repeatedly called for rate cuts, and the market is concerned that reduced central bank independence could undermine investor confidence in the US and lead to an acceleration in inflation.
At the moment, gold is just a step away from reclaiming the $3,400 level after reaching a record high above $3,500 per ounce in April. The market is searching for new catalysts after last year's rapid rally, which continued into early 2025. Trade and geopolitical tensions, inflows into exchange-traded funds, and central bank efforts to diversify away from the US dollar have all contributed to higher gold prices.
Regarding the current technical outlook, gold buyers need to take out the nearest resistance at $3,400. This would open the path to $3,440, above which breaking through will be quite challenging. The furthest target would be the $3,490 area. If gold declines, the bears will try to retake control at $3,369. Success here would deliver a severe blow to the bulls and push gold down to the $3,335 minimum, with a further prospect of $3,313.
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