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Yesterday, US stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.27%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.37%. The industrial Dow Jones strengthened by 0.43%.
The indices reached record highs on hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates to counter slowing employment. Although most S&P 500 stocks fell, the index advanced thanks to gains in all major technology companies except Apple Inc., whose shares slipped by 1.5% after the launch of the iPhone 17. Bond prices broke a four-day winning streak. Oil rose after an Israeli strike in Qatar reignited concerns of escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Following new data pointing to a slowdown in the labor market, investors are now eagerly awaiting key inflation figures due today. These results will set the tone for next week's Fed meeting and help define the scale of monetary easing through the end of 2025. And this will undoubtedly determine whether Wall Street can hold on to this month's gains. Inflation expectations are pressuring bonds, which in turn affect yields and the overall attractiveness of equities. If inflation comes in higher than expected, the Fed may take a more hawkish stance, reducing demand for risk assets. Conversely, if inflation shows further cooling, the Fed is likely to signal its readiness for more aggressive monetary easing. That would lower bond yields, revive equities, and reinforce confidence in continued economic growth. With money markets almost fully pricing in three Fed rate cuts this year, the bar is high.
Weakness in the labor market is pushing the Fed toward rate cuts, but inflation remains the key decision-making factor.
If policymakers leave borrowing costs unchanged, Wall Street is likely to react negatively, given that a rate cut is nearly priced in. Options traders are betting that the S&P 500 will move modestly after Thursday's CPI release, with forecasts calling for a swing of about 0.6% in either direction. That is well below the average realized move of 1% over the past year.
As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance level of $6,537. This would allow for further upside and open the way toward the next level at $6,552. An equally important objective for bulls will be to keep control over the $6,563 mark, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In case of a downside move amid weakening risk appetite, buyers will need to step in around $6,520. A breakout below this level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,505 and open the road toward $6,490.
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