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A test of 147.80 occurred just as the MACD indicator was starting to move down from the zero line, confirming a good entry for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell toward the target area of 147.03.
US inflation data once again weakened the dollar and boosted the Japanese yen. The published US inflation figures, which show a slowdown in consumer price growth, triggered the expected reaction in the currency markets. Additionally, another reason for the yen's appreciation is that a weaker dollar reduces pressure on the Bank of Japan, which has recently faced criticism for not shifting toward a tighter policy.
However, yen strengthening can have both positive and negative effects on the Japanese economy. On the one hand, it may reduce the cost of imports and, as a result, ease inflationary pressures. On the other hand, it can negatively affect export-oriented companies, making their products less competitive worldwide.
Today, data showed a decline in industrial production in Japan. However, this did not put much pressure on the yen; the market reacted calmly because the decrease was largely expected.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the entry area around 147.58 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 147.94 (thicker green line). Near 147.94, I plan to lock in profits and sell the pair in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip pullback from that level. It's better to return to buying the pair after corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 147.37 when the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the downside for the pair and may trigger a sharp upward reversal. A move to 147.58 and 147.94 can be expected.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a move below 147.37 (red line on the chart), which would trigger a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 146.96, where I'll exit sell trades and immediately open long positions, looking for a 20–25 pip rebound from that level. It's best to sell from as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall.
Scenario 2: I'll also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 147.58 when the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside and may trigger a sharp downward reversal. A move toward 147.37 and 146.96 can be expected.
Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.
Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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