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The fate of the British pound, like that of the euro, is mainly out of its own hands. Right now, almost everything on the market depends on how investors feel about the dollar—and in 2025, that sentiment is strongly negative. If this market mood persists through year-end, demand for the pound will only continue to grow. Notably, the current wave pattern has remained unchanged for a long time and still suggests a bullish segment is unfolding.
The new week brings the Bank of England meeting, which should not be taken lightly. In recent meetings, what mattered most was the mood of the MPC Committee—rather than the specific decision made or not made. The BoE is almost certain to leave the interest rate at 4%. It's assumed that 8 out of 9 MPC members will vote for no change, with one voting for a cut. The real reaction in the market will depend on exactly how many actually support a cut versus holding steady.
Recent inflation and unemployment reports suggest that further monetary easing by the BoE is unwarranted. Inflation in the UK has more than doubled over the last year, so the Bank needs to pause before easing policy further. However, even two or three votes for a rate cut (even if the overall decision doesn't change) could play a mean trick on the pound, though I do not expect a dramatic drop in demand. The general news backdrop and wave count oppose a deep fall.
Also worth noting is that the inflation report is due the day before the BoE meeting. Consumer prices are expected to rise even faster—3.9% in August (from just 1.7% a year ago). With such numbers, how can anyone talk about cutting rates?
Unemployment data is also out a day earlier, and since August last year, the rate has increased by 0.7%. In reality, with high unemployment, the BoE would want to ease policy further, but the jobless rate is not spiking as fast as inflation. That's why, for the MPC, inflation will remain the top priority and must be brought under control urgently.
Based on my analysis, EUR/USD continues to develop its upward trend segment. The wave structure still completely depends on the news flow regarding Trump's decisions, as well as the external and internal politics of the new Administration. The wave's target may reach the 1.25 area. Given the consistent news environment, I continue to consider long positions, targeting levels near 1.1875 (the 161.8% Fibonacci level) and above.
The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, markets may see plenty of shocks and reversals, which could notably impact the wave pattern, but for now, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy remains unchanged. The upward trend segment's targets are near the 261.8% Fibonacci level. Currently, I expect continued growth within wave 3 of 5, aiming for 1.4017.
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