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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday rose to the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3708, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, falling into the support zone of 1.3587–1.3620. Today, consolidation below this zone would allow for a continued decline toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.3482. A rebound from the zone would work in favor of the pound and a return to growth toward 1.3708.
The wave structure remains "bullish." The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave easily broke the previous peak. The news background does not allow bears to go on the offensive. The market expects strong monetary easing from the FOMC, which gives bulls strength in the medium term. At the moment, there are no grounds to expect a significant decline in GBP/USD. However, today's Bank of England meeting is still ahead.
All Trump has achieved with his pressure on the Fed is a few rate cuts. I would even say more—Trump has achieved nothing with his pressure on the Fed, since the FOMC is ready to ease policy due to a weak labor market, not because of Trump. However, Jerome Powell made it clear yesterday that inflation remains an important indicator for the regulator. Thus, no one except Steven Miran is prepared to vote for a cut of more than 0.25%. When the rate is cut by another 0.50%, the Fed will likely reassess economic data to determine whether the measures taken are sufficient to stabilize the labor market. If so, the regulator will once again pause indefinitely, shifting its focus back to fighting high inflation, which continues to accelerate under Trump's tariffs.
Within a few hours today, the Bank of England will announce its rate vote results, which could give bears new strength. Thus, bears had opportunities to attack yesterday and have them again today, but in the longer term I still do not expect them to go on the offensive.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues its upward move after consolidating above the 1.3378–1.3435 zone. Growth may therefore continue toward the next corrective level of 127.2% at 1.3795. The CCI indicator has formed a "bearish" divergence, which coincided with the market's reaction to the FOMC outcome. The hourly chart remains more informative for now.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has not changed over the past reporting week. The number of long positions among speculators decreased by 1,213, while short positions decreased by 748. The gap between long and short contracts is currently about 75,000 versus 109,000. However, as we can see, the pound still leans toward growth, and traders lean toward buying.
In my view, the pound still faces downside risks. The news background for the U.S. dollar in the first six months of the year was terrible but is now gradually improving. Trade tensions are easing, key deals are being signed, and the U.S. economy in the second quarter is expected to recover thanks to tariffs and various investments. At the same time, prospects for Fed easing in the second half of the year have already started to put serious pressure on the dollar, as the U.S. labor market weakens and unemployment rises. Thus, I still see no grounds for a "dollar trend."
News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:
On September 18, the economic calendar contains three entries, two of which are important for the pound. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may again be strong.
GBP/USD forecast and trader recommendations:
Sales were possible on the hourly chart from the rebound at 1.3708, targeting the 1.3611–1.3620 zone. This target has been met. Today, buys are possible from a rebound at the 1.3587–1.3620 zone with a target of 1.3708. New sales can be considered on a close below the 1.3587–1.3620 zone with a target of 1.3482.
The Fibonacci grids are built between 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and between 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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