17.10.202500:14 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trump: India Will Stop Buying Oil from Russia. India: What?

Donald Trump's pressure campaign on Russia is expanding. The U.S. president recently demanded that India halt purchases of Russian oil and gas in an attempt to cut off funding for the war in Ukraine. Frankly, that formulation of the demand raises questions—particularly Trump's proclaimed desire to end the war in Ukraine. There's little doubt that the U.S. leader wants to see the conflict resolved, but seemingly not for the sake of long-awaited peace. Rather, he aims to solidify his status as a globally recognized politician of historic importance. Trump wants to go down in history.

There's nothing inherently wrong with that motive, but his methods for achieving a ceasefire seem odd. Suppose India, China, and Japan were to stop buying oil and gas from Russia—then what? Where are these large, energy-hungry economies supposed to source their energy? The issue is not just complex logistics—as Trump perhaps assumes—but cost. In Trump's view, everyone should pay more for oil and preferably buy it from the U.S. He has repeatedly tried to reassure the leaders of China and India by offering "alternative purchases" from the U.S., which would come at a higher price. Naturally, such proposals don't benefit India or China. New Delhi and Beijing have no intention of following what they view as another unreasonable whim from the U.S. president. Every country acts in its own interests—something Trump either doesn't understand or refuses to acknowledge.

On Wednesday, the U.S. president claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised to stop buying Russian oil. On Thursday, however, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal announced that India made no such promises. Jaiswal emphasized that India's priority remains protecting its consumers, and the government's job is to ensure affordable energy and heating. Therefore, it's clear that no agreement has been reached between the U.S. and India. Elevated duties on Indian imports remain in place, and Trump continues to call on China and Japan to refuse Russian oil.

EUR/USD Wave Structure:

Based on the current wave analysis of EUR/USD, the pair continues building an upward trend segment. The wave mapping remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop—particularly developments tied to Trump's decisions and the domestic and foreign policy of the current U.S. administration. Targets for the current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.2500 area. At present, we appear to be witnessing the completion of corrective wave 4, which is complex and drawn out. As a result, I continue to consider only long positions in the short term. By year-end, I anticipate the euro will reach the level of 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci.

GBP/USD Wave Structure:

The wave configuration of GBP/USD has shifted. We are still within an upward, impulsive trend segment, though its internal structure is becoming increasingly complex. Wave 4 is taking on a complicated three-wave form and is far more extended than wave 2. Currently, we are likely in the formation of another corrective three-wave pattern, which may soon be completed. If this assumption is correct, the currency pair could resume rising within the broader wave structure, with initial targets near the 1.3800–1.4000 range.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are harder to trade and more prone to changes.
2. If there is no clear understanding of market dynamics, it's better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in market direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of market analysis and trading strategies.